Confidence

Choice and Score answers carry probabilities, the full distribution, and confidence, one number from 0 to 1 that says how concentrated that distribution is. Concentrated on one outcome means a confident answer; spread out means an uncertain one. A Noul answer carries noul and confidence, the larger of noul and 1 − noul.

For a choice or a score the engine computes confidence as one minus the normalised entropy of the probabilities; when Jers combines answers (option orders, two rounds, windows) or applies a tenant temperature, it recomputes it the same way. Whether a confidence of 0.9 means "right nine times in ten" is a calibration property. TypeSafe claims it for Jev. For Jers it was checked on one constructed set of 60 support messages: calibration error 0.17 (jers-english) and 0.34 (jers-typed-decisions) on held-out folds, 0.13 and 0.10 after a fitted temperature (measurements/jers-gateway-live-2026-09-23.txt). Fit it on your own labels (Quality); until then, treat confidence as a ranking signal: higher is more certain, and set thresholds from your own observed error rates.

Three tiers

answer = r.answers["intent"]
if answer.confidence >= 0.9:
    act(answer.choice)                      # automatic
elif answer.confidence >= 0.6:
    act_after_confirmation(answer.choice)   # ask the user, or log for review
else:
    route_to_human()

The 0.9 and 0.6 are a starting point, not a measurement. Scale the threshold with the consequence: a read-only action can run at 0.6, a destructive one wants 0.9 or more. Start conservative, then set the thresholds from GET /v1/quality, which gives per question the probability at which 90% accuracy is reached on your labels.

What the memory does to confidence

Memory lines change the distribution, and so the confidence, in both directions. In the escalation cookbook two lines about a priority account moved the escalate answer from 0.20 to 0.82. memory.compare shows both distributions so you can see it. Lines can also move answers just by being there, in either direction: five neutral lines moved an escalation answer from 0.46 to 0.28 (measurements/jers-recall-size-2026-09-23.json). Keep memories short and check with compare and placebo.